Outage data and application of probabilistic indicators in system planning

摘要

• Planning for uncertain future with deterministic approach does not seem appropriate. Power system behavior is stochastic in nature, and therefore the analysis of such systems should be based on probabilistic techniques. A deterministic approach cannot capture the full spectrum of the renewable generation variability and uncertainties. • Probabilistic approach gives system planning engineers a better feel of future system conditions and will provide more confidence in making judgments concerning investment and utilize the capital where is most needed. • NERC-TADS-GADS and CEA ERIS programs can support ongoing monitoring of a variety of outage events and produce performance indicators that are of need in probabilistic planning. • Probabilistic planning studies assess the relationship between reliability and economy and properly identify the minimum cost to achieve the maximum reliability. • Probabilistic planning can account for a number of uncertainties.