To assess the type or spectrum of warfare that a terrorist group is likely to conduct in its operations, this paper proposes an indications and warning (I&W) methodology to comprehensively and systematically map all the significant indicators (as well as sub-indicators and observables) that need to be examined. A key proposition is that most of the current threat assessments fail to adequately assess the likelihood and magnitude of the types of threats posed by contemporary terrorism because of three fundamental problems in their approaches. First, many threat assessments focus exclusively on two types of warfare, "conventional" or CBRN, but not on three types of warfare that are more prevalent in terms of their actual or potential impact: conventional low impact (CLI), conventional high impact (CHI), and CBRN.
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