Natural Gas Pipeline Network Risk Assessment Based on FMECA-Fuzzy Comprehensive Analysis

摘要

The FMECA method is a qualitative reliability analysis method. It describes the functions, accident modes and causes of the various subsystems, the frequency and severity of accidents in detail, but its evaluation result is expressed in a qualitative way abstractly. The fuzzy comprehensive analysis method is a risk assessment method that can express qualitative descriptions in a quantitative way, which can just make up for the insufficiency of the FMECA method. The introduction of FMECA-fuzzy comprehensive analysis method can solve these problems and improve the objectivity of systemic risk assessment, making the evaluation result more reasonable. In order to evaluate the safety of urban natural gas pipeline network system more accurately, based on the FMECA-fuzzy method, we analyze the risk factors of the natural gas pipeline network system in a certain city in-depth, use the analytic hierarchy process to calculate the weights of the factors in all levels, determine the frequency and severity of various types of accidents in the pipe network system through expert scoring and carry out the natural gas pipeline network system by the FMECA-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The calculation results show that the risk level is low, which is consistent with the actual risk assessment test report.