Study on Law of Scenario Evolution Based on Accident Statistics of Hazardous Chemicals Transportation

摘要

In recent years, China's dangerous Chemicals transportation accidents have occurred frequently, and road transportation comprised a large proportion. We collected 982 cases of hazardous Chemical road transport accidents from 2013 to June 2018 and summarized the characteristics of accidents. We also analyzed the characteristics and laws of accidents in terms of sections, provinces, road types, hazardous varieties, loading, accident causes, accident consequences and accident emergency disposal time. The results show that the road transport accidents of hazardous Chemicals are closely related to the initial trafflc accidents. Rollover, tracking and impact are the main trafflc accidents. They usually develop the way of rollover-leakage, tracking-leakage, impact-leakage. Aiming at the evolution process, a map of probabilistic accident chain is drawn to reveal the probability distribution of various types of accidents in hazardous road transport and the weak points of accident evolution. Relative preventive measures are being proposed as well.