Lightning risk assessment of transmission lines based on D-S theory of evidence and entropy-weighted grey correlation analysis

摘要

An approach based on D-S theory of evidence and entropy-weighted grey correlation analysis is proposed as means to evaluating lightning risk of transmission lines. The correlation between environmental factors (altitude, slope position, aspect, slope, river network density, population density, Land-use types and surface types) and the lightning accidents of transmission lines are discussed based on the data of lightning trip-out. Based on the Information Entropy Theory, the entropy weight of the environmental factors of the line to be evaluated is determined, and the Probability Mass Function of environmental factors are obtained by the grey relational analysis. Then, the Evidence Theory is adopted to realize multi-source environmental information fusion. Finally, mapping the confidence value of lightning strike to the risk probability of lightning strike. Based on the proposed method and the lightning trip-out information of 35-500kV 623 transmission lines from 2003 to 2015, the lightning strike probability of different transmission lines are calculated. Compared the operational data for 2016 years to the evaluation results, the proposed method is credible.