MODELING THE EFFECTS OF STRESSES ON DYNAMICS OF BAT RABIES

摘要

In this paper we investigate the effects of stress as measured by the maintenance of the rabies virus in bat colonies by analyzing its influence on population densities and immuno-logical profile of the colonies. We consider three different scenarios of stress introduction into a population, built of 8 distinct immunotypes and present numerical simulations of disease and population dynamics. We demonstrate that an accidental stressful event can be easily overcome by the population, while a persistent vertical immunodepression due to stress factors can have a devastating impact on the colony, even if it occurs at relatively low rates. We also show that seasonal stress factors affect the population dynamics, but do not change the immunological profile of the colony significantly.