Effects of immune system diversity and physical variation of immunotypic mixing on the dynamics of rabies in bats. (Special Issue: Dedicated to Jim M. Cushing on the occasion of his 65th birthday.)

摘要

The ecology and life history of rabies viruses in bats suggest a need for an integrated modelling treatment that extends beyond traditional epidemiological approaches. We modify our adaptive modelling approach to investigate the effects of immune system structure and immunological mixing events on the disease profile of the bat colony and subsequently on the dynamics of rabies viruses in bats. Our theoretical framework, which is based on individual (intra-host) models of the response of the host to a viral challenge and virus-specific disease mechanisms, integrates the individual components to provide information about the disease structure and the demographic composition of the bat colony. We focus on the changes in dynamics at the population level due to two processes: (1) immunological diversity in a biological process, reproduction, and (2) immunological diversity in a physical-physiological process, migration. The results suggest that immunotypic mixing plays a critical role in the disease progression within populations and it is an important factor in determining the persistence of rabies in exposed bat colonies.