Science and security for changing water quantity and quality with rapid urbanisation and variability in climate and society

摘要

The water resources regime of the Himalyas has been in a phase of transition over the last 30 years. Figure 1 shows temperature and precipitation from 1978 to 2008 measured at a typical location, Bhang in the Pir-Panjal range of the Himalayas. There is a sign of rise in the seasonal mean temperature (0.1℃/year at Bhang) and rise in the consumption of freshwater. The pattern of rainfall is variable and the Himalayan snow cover and snowmelt runoff contributions to the streams are changing due to warming (Verdhen et al. 2011). The change in precipitation and runoff is also related to deforestation and unscientific capital-intensive rapid development in the region over three decades (Verdhen and Prasad 1993, Arora et al. 2008). Human interference, trekking, tourism and mobility have multiplied the uncertainty related to the sustainability of the Himalayan water resources. Verdhen et al. (2014) used an average condition temperature-time-melt-flow (TTiMQ) regression model to reduce the prediction variability at the local scale.