A NEW TECHNIQUE FOR SHORT–TERM WIND ENERGY FORECASTING:A RAPID UPDATE CYCLE WITH APHYSICS–BASED ATMOSPHERIC MODEL

摘要

Short-term wind energy forecasts have traditionally been produced by a statistical model thatrnutilizes a time series of recent generation and meteorological data from a wind plant and perhapsrnsome data from a few offsite met towers or output data from a regional physics-basedrnatmospheric model. It is difficult to expand this statistical approach to incorporate the large andrngrowing volume of remotely-sensed data that is available to specify the current atmosphericrnconditions within the local-area surrounding the wind plant.rnAWSTrueWind has developed an alternate approach that utilizes a very high resolution physicsbasedrnatmospheric model operating in a rapid update cycle mode. In this approach the modelrnassimilates all of the different types of data available in the local-area environment of a windrnplant to produce a three-dimensional representation of the current atmospheric state. This is thernstarting point for a short-term three-dimensional forecast simulation of the atmosphere. Thernphysical relationships in the physics-based model allow the large volume of input data tornefficiently interact in a physically consistent manner to produce forecasts of meteorologicalrnvariables at a wind plant site. It is anticipated that this approach will be able to effectively usernthe large quantities of high resolution and quality data that will be available from a newrngeneration of satellite-based sensors over the next 5 to 10 years to make significantrnimprovements in short-term wind energy forecast performance.