Oil and Natural Gas and theEnergy Matrices—Brazil 2000 – 2020

摘要

This paper is a follow-up of some former authors’spaper including the one presented at the 52nd CIPC –2001 and it explores the insertion of natural gas (NG) inthe primary energy and electricity generations worldand Brazilian matrices. It updates and review matricesthrough 2000-2020. The projections author’sassumptions and parameters were compared to datafrom DOE-EIA, EIA and MME – energy outlook 2002-2022. The work studies and results are independent buthave some accordance with those group data. Theimportance of the NG phase-in in the Brazilian energymatrices is prospected and explored.The recent several giant oil field discovers by theBrazilian oil company (PETROBRAS–BR) and partnersand the growing volume of oil reserves is supporting theBrazilian oil production self sufficiency from the year2005 and on. The projection of domestic production of4,4 million barrel / day in 2020 will be ranked among the larger eight to tenth world production and between13th and 15th bigger oil proved reserves.Financial and economic analyses of the alternativeelectric generation matrices defined the transitionalhydro-thermo generation matrix as the best option toexpand the electricity offer in Brazil for the period 2000-2020.The Brazilian energy system efficiency is evaluatedusing the income elasticity of energy demand (IEED)and the results of Brazilian IEED for 2000-2020 arecompared to others countries and regions for differenttime periods, such as 1960-1972, 1976-1885 (1st and 2ndoil shock) (WAES–MIT, 1977). The IEED methodologyis recommended to evaluate the expected efficiency gainafter the results from the recent electrical powerrationing between June, 2001 to February, 2002, inBrazil.