DRIVERS OF GLOBAL SECURITY AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS

摘要

Project "Insight" was conducted three years ago by the Defence Evaluation and Research Agency (DERA) to establish the key drivers likely to influence global security in the period 2015 to 2040. The project was initiated under the auspices of the UK Technology Foresight Defence and Aerospace Panel, aiming to provide guidance for strategic planning in defence. To help tackle the increased uncertainty and complexity of the future, the project undertook a series of interviews across a wide population of informed people around the world. A small number of focused studies were also conducted. A substantial period of synthesis engaged recognised defence and scenario planning experts, including an international symposium. The project produced three related outputs: 1. A set of core drivers characterised in terms of the issues they raise, the outcomes they imply and associated indicators. 2. A range of contrasting macro scenarios illustrating the way in which differing outcomes for the set of drivers might produce qualitatively different international structures and relationships. 3. A proposal for an evidence-based hybrid planning strategy - 'the Insight method' -encompassing both long range planning and nearer term crisis management. This paper outlines the Insight method before presenting a summary of the 'drivers' aspect of the work and their implications. The UK Cabinet Office's Strategic Challenges project, run by its Performance and Innovation Unit, recently drew on an enormous range of futures work, including Project Insight. Its consolidated paper confirms the currency of the Insight work.