A SELF-ORGANIZED CYCLICAL GROWTH MODEL WITH STOCHASTIC TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS AND FLEXIBLE ACCELERATOR

摘要

Many efforts have been paid in the study of real business cycles for modeling economic growth and business cycles, especially for making technological progress (TP) endogenous in models. Many models use certain factor(s) for representing TP, such as Solow residual, R&D investment, knowledge accumulation etc. This is not proper for measuring aggregate TP because there are too many factors that may contribute to TP, and TP may take place in too many forms. Further more, these so called endogenous TP factors are still driven by outside forces. By introducing the inertia law of value, I suggest to use technological progress caused depreciation (TPCD) to measuring TP. The inertia law of value states that without technological progress and physical wear and tear, the value of commodity will not change. Then, based on the multiplier-accelerator models proposed by Samuelsen and Metzler, I build up a new cyclical growth model, in which accelerator is assumed flexible, technological progress is represented bay TPCD and assumed a stochastic process but not shocks. Mean while, an error in Metzler's model is corrected. In this model, cyclical growth is a self-organized process driven and regulated by investment behavior and TP. Coefficients are chosen according to the real economy in simulation test of the model. The model is found to be consistent with facts and relative theories.