Focused Time Delay Neural Network Model for Rainfall Prediction Using Indian Ocean Dipole Index

摘要

Indian monsoon rainfall is a process which is dependent on number of ecological and geographical parameter. This makes it very difficult to accurately predict the monsoon rainfall. As India is agriculture base country a long range monsoon rainfall prediction is crucial for proper planning and management of agriculture strategy. Many researcher have identified influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the inter annual variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon in the Indian Ocean. It is normally characterized by anomalous cooling of SST in the south eastern equatorial Indian Ocean and anomalous warming of SST in the western equatorial Indian Ocean. In this paper a Time lag neural network model with gamma memory processing neuron is proposed for one month ahead prediction of monsoon rainfall in the country based upon the Indian Ocean dipole parameter.