Impact of Climate Change on the Streamflow in Headwater of the Yellow River Basin

摘要

A coupled system integrating GCM's output data, downscaling model and distributed hydrologic model is proposed in this study. First, the Statistical DownScaling (SDS) model for the simulation of historic climate (1961 - 1990) and three future scenarios (2020s, 2050s and 2080s) are calibrated and applied. Then the distributed hydrologic model, Soil and Water Analysis Tool (SWAT), is applied to simulate the streamflow for headwater of the Yellow River basin. Finally, the coupled system is applied to investigate the hydrologic response to climate change in the study area. The results show: (a) The SDS model is successful in reproducing the main features of the observed hydrometeorology from the baseline climate simulation, when it is used to the HadCM3 GCM output; (b) The monthly flow simulated by SWAT corresponds very well with the measured ones, and the model can capture the seasonal tendency satisfactorily; ( c ) The hydrologic processes in the study area are very sensitive to future climate changes in the future.