POTENTIAL 2030 TARGETS FOR PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION OF TRANSPORT BIOFUELS IN THE NETHERLANDS

摘要

In this study VITO was asked to perform a plausibility check of The Dutch Platform for Biobased RawMaterials (PGG) 60% biofuels target for 2030. The analysis of the evolution of the transport sector lead to insightsthat with policy supporting energy saving and electrification of transport, by 2030 energy demand in transport couldbe reduced by one third compared to the reference scenario. Nevertheless it is striking that, even in a pro-activescenario, about 90% of total energy in transport in 2030 will be consumed in more or less traditional technologies.Within these technologies, biofuels can play an important role. The local biomass potential in the Netherlands canonly supply part of the demand, the accessability, the presence of the international harbour of Rotterdam, and ampleexpertise in the Netherlands on biomass conversion are important foundations to build local biofuel activities. It wasconcluded that it would be ambituous, but possible to produce an amount of biofuels in the Netherlands, equivalent to60% of its in-land fuel consumption in 2030. However most of this production will be for export to other Europeancountries. The ambition for biofuel consumption in the dutch transport system will need to be geared to the policies inneighbour countries, although some higher target will be possible, e.g. through the support of high blends. It wassuggested that a 25% target for in-land biofuel consumption in 2030 would be very ambitious, but still plausible ifthoroughly supported by policy and RD&D in different fields.