RCP·SSPシナリオに基づく全球沿岸域での海面上昇による浸水影響評価

摘要

The objective of this study was to assess global impact of sea level rise based on RCP/SSP scenarios. Global areas of inundation due to seal level rise and astronomical high tide were identified. Combining the results of inundated areas based on RCP scenarios with SSP scenarios, the populations affected and the economic damages caused by inundation due to future climate change were also estimated. Consequently, potential inundated areas vary 370 thousand km~2(RCP2.6) to 420 thousand km~2(RCP8.5) and affected population vary 55.3 million (RCP2.6, SSP1) to 106 million (RCP8.5, SSP3) in 2100. This quantitative information is expected to be valuable in implementing desirable adaptations according to the regional conditions.%本稿では，最新の気候シナリオ(CMIP5, RCPシナリオ)および社会経済シナリオ(SSPシナリオ)を用いて 海面水位上昇量および潮汐変動を考慮した全球規模の浸水影響を評価した.その結果，大潮の满潮時に海 面上昇を考慮した場合の2100年における潜在的浸水面積は約37万km~2(RCP2.6)〜42万km~2(RCP8.5)，影響人 口は約5,530万人(RCP2.6, SSP1)〜1.06億人(RCP8.5, SSP3)という推計値を得た.さらに主な国別の浸水影響 や全球規模の浸水被害額を評価した.これら全球沿岸域における気候変動影響の定量的評価は，地域毎の 最適な適応策を検討するための判断材料となることが期待される.