EVALUATING WEATHER ROUTING DECISIONS USING ENSEMBLE WEATHER FORECASTS

摘要

Weather routing decisions are typically based on performance predictions, in terms of estimated time of arrival, ETA, fuel consumption, and consideration of various constraints on the vessel operation such as limitations on allowable acceleration levels or slamming frequencies. The performance and feasibility of candidate routes are typically evaluated using a deterministic weather forecast. The reliability of the decision is thus strongly affected by the accuracy of that one forecast. Ensemble weather forecasts are however proven to be an effective tool for assessing the uncertainty of the associated deterministic weather forecast. This paper investigates the potential to reduce the probability of arriving later than the planned arrival time by using ensemble weather forecasts as a compliment to the standard deterministic forecast for the evaluation of the predicted performance of a route. The routing of a panamax class container carrier is studied by simulating a voyage in the north Atlantic for several different departure dates spread out over a year. The results of the investigation performed in this paper show that there are situations where the use of ensemble weather forecasts as an alternative, or complement, to the deterministic weather forecast significantly can increase the reliability of the routing decision. The increased reliability can thus help operation managers to maximize the utility of the vessel.