A Methodology to Estimate Input-Output Inoperability Model Parameters

摘要

Input-output Inoperability Model (IIM) is a simple tool able to emphasize cascade effects induced in a complex infrastructure scenario by dependencies phenomena. One of the most challenging tasks for its use is the estimation of the model parameters. In the literature they are generally evaluated on the base of the amount of mutual economical exchanges. In this paper we illustrate a methodology to evaluate IIM parameters on the base of behavioural characteristics of the different infrastructures during a crisis. The approach exploits data collected via experts' interviews handling also information about failure duration, estimation confidence and expert reliability. The methodology has been applied, as case study, to analyse Italian situation.