Modeling and prediction of TEC in China region for satellite navigation

摘要

The satellite navigation system needs the forecast of the ionosphere. It's indispensable to select an efficient ionospheric model and predict the value of TEC. In this paper, the Klobuchar14 parameter model is introduced and the time series of the 14 parameters for ten years are generated by fitting the TEC in China region with the model. Then, with the two-variable regression analysis, the relationship between the time series and the sunspot and the 10.7cm solar radio flux is established. In addition, the periodic function is introduced to fit the time series. Finally, with the AR model, the series of the 14 parameters are predicted and the forecast of the TEC in China region is produced. The accuracy assessment of the prediction shows the feasible of this method.