Application of grey prediction model to forecast the main air contaminant PM10 in Harbin City

摘要

According to the PM10 monitoring data of Harbin City in China during 2001～2007, the paper establishes a conventional grey forecasting model GM(1,1) and its metabolic version based on grey system theory. Four different methods are employed to test the accuracy of two models and the metabolic model is proved superior to conventional one as a good prediction approach. After that, the paper predicts the concentrations of PM10 in the next 5 years of Harbin City by using the metabolic GM(1,1) model. The results suggest that the air condition is increasingly well in the future, conforming to the Grade 2 of the Ambient Air Quality Standard of China, and the annual average concentration of PM10 in 2012 will drop down to 0.0786 mg/m3, which is on the premise of strict environmental pollution control.