METHODOLOGY FOR RISK ANALYSIS OF DAM GATES AND ASSOCIATED OPERATING EQUIPMENT USING FAULT-TREE ANALYSIS

摘要

The paper will present the development of analysis tools for use in risk assessment of dam gates and associated operating equipment. The methodologies discussed will focus on a detailed fault tree analysis of dam spillway system that concentrates on the failure of the dam gates and operational subsystems. Two different methods of pre-screening analysis will be presented and evaluated. The first method uses criticality analysis to rank each of the potential failure modes in a Failure Modes and Effects Analysis. The second method uses the traditional estimation of probabilities of failures in conjunction with importance ranking factors for the gate subsystems to estimate the probability of failure for overall gate system. These methods can then be linked qualitatively with the Lafitte risk method through costs and consequences for the events to determine the associated overall risks for a dam spillway system. The analysis methods will be demonstrated through the use of an illustrative example. Conclusions and recommendations will be made for each of the methods presented.