Use of Monte Carlo Simulation on the Schedule Management of the Production of Welded Components

摘要

Industrial production of a large number of components must be well planned in order to deliver the requested material in the contracted schedule. Several problems can occur during the production period, which delays the scheduled work. Most of managers, when establishing the production schedule, use deterministic approaches and do not take into account the probabilities of happening of such problems. In this paper, Monte Carlo technique is used in order to simulate the production schedule of 350 welded components and determine, with a certain degree of confidence, the contractual delivery date of the components.