Implications of Complexity Theory on Real Option Analysis in IT Portfolio Management

摘要

In IT Portfolio Management, Real Option Analysis (ROA) and Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis are often used to place a quantitative value on an IT investment. ROA is theoretically superior to DCF analysis because ROA specifically attempts to account for managerial flexibility or the ability of management to adjust to a changing situation. However, while DCF analysis has been criticized as undervaluing IT projects, ROA has been criticized as overvaluing them. One possible explanation for an upward bias in ROA is that it often incorrectly assumes that managers will be able to make follow-on investments to an IT project if that project is successful, (i.e. Growth options). Drawing from complexity theory and using project data from three large private organizations in the Mid-West we found that there was a log-linear relationship between the number of projects and SDLC phase. The implication is that organizations primarily using internal IT resources are only able to develop a small number of late stage projects at a time. This in turn has important implications for Outsourcing, IT project portfolio management, and ROA. Specifically many growth options used in calculating project value in ROA may be unrealistic given the limited resources of private organizations.