Agricultural Land Use Changes and Its Implications on Food Security in Northeast China

摘要

It is of great significance to study the changing patterns of current regional cultivated land and explore its impact on grain productivity.In this paper,the changes were detected from multi-temporal Landsat TM/ETM+ images of 1993 and 2003 for Northeast China.Then considering the natural and social factors systematically,the comprehensive quality of cultivated land was evaluated.On the basis of field survey data,agricultural statistics data and considering the natural and socio-economic factors,this paper analyzed the impact of cultivated land change on the grain production capacity in terms of cultivated land quantity and quality.Finally,pre-warning on grain production safety in Northeast China was carried on by early warning model,which was developed considering the change of grain yield from two respects of cultivated land quality and quantity.