Integrated campaign probabilistic cost, schedule, performance, and value for program office support

摘要

This paper describes an integrated assessment tool developed at NASA Langley Research Center that incorporates probabilistic analysis of life cycle cost, schedule, launch performance, on-orbit performance, and value across a “campaign”, defined to be a series of planned space-based missions. Originally designed as an aid in planning the execution of missions to accomplish the goals of the National Research Council 2007 Earth Science Decadal Survey, the tool utilizes Monte Carlo simulation of campaigns for assessment of resource requirements and expected return on investment. Interactions between simulated missions, such as competition for launch site manifest, are incorporated to capture unexpected and non-linear system behaviors. A novel value model is utilized to provide an assessment of the probabilistic return on investment. A demonstration case is discussed to illustrate the tool utility.