Characteristics of China's coal, oil and electricity price and its regulation effect on entity economy

摘要

Price of coal, electricity and oil are key factors affecting economy. Taking the yearly data of 1980-2007 as a sample, we tested the fluctuation characteristics and causality of coal, electricity and oil price, and indicated that there is dual-causality between the coal and electricity price. Through Cointegration test and State Space Model, effect of coal, electricity, oil price on output and price level is tested in this paper. It indicates that there is both positive and negative effect of coal, electricity and oil price on output, and then it can not be taken as tools of regulating output in practice. Besides, as important production material, price shocks of coal, electricity and oil has steady and strong effect on price level. Through comparison with the effect of interest rate to entity economy, it finds that the regulating effect of adjusting coal, electricity and oil price to price level is superior to the effect of interest rate. However, marketization reform of mechanism energy price should be deepened so as to effectively and reasonably guiding price level by the marketization price.