FUZZY-LOGIC SUPPORTED EVALUATION OF THE DISPOSAL COSTS AND TARIFFS OF HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTE

摘要

The present applied paper presents a practical application of the fuzzy-logic tools developed by ONDRAF-NIRAS, the Belgian radioactive waste management (RAWM) agency for the economic and financial evaluation of RAWM projects. Three types of uncertainties have an important impact. (1) Project uncertainties result from imprecise assessments of per-unit costs, e.g., cost of material, equipment or labour. (2) Technological uncertainties result from the incompleteness or unresolved problems in the design. (3) Additional time uncertainties result from the lack of precise knowledge on the actual realisation schedules. In previous papers the elements of a Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) to deal with type (1) and (2) uncertainties have been presented for the economic calculus of RAWM projects. The present paper deals with the way schedule-dependent type (3) uncertainties are to be taken into account, using again fuzzy logic. An illustration is given on the procedure to be followed for calculating disposal tariffs for the high-level waste repository.