A Fuzzy Reed-Frost Model for Epidemic Spreading

摘要

In this work, we propose a generalization of the classical Reed-Frost model considering heterogeneities in the population. In the Fuzzy Reed-Frost model the signals (symptoms, medical findings etc.) are included in the dynamics of the epidemic. Each individual presents a set of clinical indicators, which are used to determine his/her infectivity degree through a fuzzy decision process. The model is compared with a stochastic Reed-Frost model developed by some of the authors in a previous work.