A strategy for the generation of robust accident scenarios in quantitative risk assessment using multi-component analysis

摘要

A strategy for producing robust accident scenarios in quantitative risk assessment, which is performed in the process design or operation steps, is proposed. Most governments over the world require industrial companies to submit proper emergency plans through the off-site risk assessment. However, these have been no systematic approaches or criteria for generating reasonable virtual accident scenarios, and it is very difficult to get the unified or coherent assessment result. To get over these shortcomings, this study proposes a strategy for analyzing process elements and then selecting and generating robust accident scenarios that simulate the worst accidents most likely to happen and should be foremost considered. The result through the proposed analysis enhances the reliability of the produced risk scenario and prevents the risks from being overestimated. The obtained result should be more helpful in the proper process design and emergency planning.