The uncertainties of the hydrogen infrastructure investment in a liberalized market

摘要

Hydrogen produced from renewable sources and used in fuel cells to power multiple applications has the potential to revolutionize the energy sector in a sustainable way. The use of hydrogen is particularly important in transportation, where energy consumption (mostly oil) and greenhouse gas emissions are expected to increase in the coming years. (HyWays, 2008) Even though hydrogen production is still more costly than other fuels, technology improvements in production and high oil prices have improved its economics. Many fuel cell producers have recently announced the cost of the fuel cells is approaching a competitive level, and some demonstration projects are already on the road all over the world. However, without infrastructure there will be no demand for hydrogen and fuel cell technology, and in that situation automotive companies will be unwilling to supply fuel cell cars. On the other hand, without demand there will be no private agents interested in building up the infrastructure. This is the so-called “chicken-or-egg” dilemma. (Plotkin, 2007) rnIn order to solve this dilemma, the challenge is to bring together the automotive industry supplying the fuel cell car, and the infrastructure to produce, deliver and retail hydrogen. Infrastructure promoters can be found among oil and gas companies, industrial gas companies and electric utilities. Gas and electric utilities might be particularly interested in promoting hydrogen for stationary appliances such as decentralized power generation or small cogeneration of heat and power (CHP) systems. rnIt is recognized that liberalization of the European energy networks (as electricity and gas) creates new opportunities for the actors, as well as new uncertainties especially concerning investment planning. (Jamasb and Pollitt, 2005) In addition to the regular uncertainties such as the investment risk (investment cost, construction duration), the operational risk (operational costs, particularly input prices), and the demand risk (the demand response can follow or not the projections), the new institutional framework brings also market, regulatory and innovation uncertainties. Firstly, as the market share is henceforth the result of competition, companies are not anymore sure about their future share. Secondly, the deregulation of the network industries raises dynamic uncertainties about the regulatory framework in the future (market concentration, CO_2 regulation, etc.) Finally, liberalization amplifies innovation uncertainties. The new context is expected to change the way companies choose their investments. They will prefer to pick low risk innovations, but low long-term benefits to the society (i.e. environment, fuel diversification, economy). (Dixit and Pindyck, 1994) rnOur paper is focused on financing the early hydrogen infrastructure (mobile and stationary). The objective is to improve the understanding about the impact of uncertainties in the investment in hydrogen infrastructure.