The costs of policies supporting a quick transition to fuel cell vehicles

摘要

This paper analyses the costs of policies, which support the transition to fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) in the transport system of Germany. Different policies can be followed to support the introduction of hydrogen-powered vehicles. In this analysis support policies and the interactions of the main car market stakeholders (e.g. consumers, car manufacturers and filling station owners) are modelled and evaluated. A System Dynamics model was developed to describe the system “car market” and to calculate the required subsidies and tax allowances for different support policies. In the reference scenario, the scenario with a successful transition to FCVs, nearly five billion Euros are necessary for support policies during the introduction phase. This amount of money includes the subsidies for at least 500 hydrogen fuel stations, which have to be built up at the beginning of the FCV introduction, to make FCVs attractive from the beginning on. Furthermore, additional subsidies for the vehicles are necessary to reduce the price of FCVs to the level of modern diesel cars; otherwise consumers’ acceptance of FCVs will be very low. According to the results of the model, tax-free hydrogen fuel and subsidies on FCVs will lead to quick market penetration of FCVs. A rapid introduction of FCVs based on these policies is necessary in order to limit the cumulative subsidies for the vehicles and fuel tax deficit.