The Causality Relationship between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth:Implications for a New Global Climate Regime

摘要

Security of supply uncertainties and rising oil prices have resulted in an increased interest in the causal relationship between energy prices, energy use and economic growth. Energy saving and efficiency policies seem to be the best way to tackle climate change and supply security concerns in the short run. During the negotiation process for a post-Kyoto climate regime following the Bali Roadmap, the question arises, which countries will be negatively affected by energy saving measures. This empirical investigation applies cointegration and error correction techniques and consists of two parts. In the first part, the bivariate relationship between energy and GDP is examined for the 15 biggest global energy consumers between 1978 and 2005. In the second part, energy prices are added as a third variable for OECD member countries. In each part the analysis is deepened by applying panel-based unit root and cointegration techniques in order to get a clearer picture of possible heterogeneities within the European Union.