A Systems Approach to Risk Management

摘要

In today's world, most engineering management projects are extremely complex and are very difficult for any one person or even one organization to fully understand. Consequently, understanding and managing risk becomes increasingly difficult in this environment. The purpose of this study is to examine how systems thinking can help reduce risk in large complex projects. It looks at the problem of risk from a number of perspectives, as both the risk of losing personnel to job hazards, as well as the financial risks involved when projects go over budget and over time. This paper explains how System Dynamics can be used to help model large, complex problems, and how doing so helps us to better understand the internal feedback mechanisms involved in nearly all large systems. It also shows how System Dynamics models can then be simulated to help determine which policy drivers are most important in the system, allowing policy makers to make informed decisions. Finally, it examines two case studies where System Dynamics modeling was used to help manage risk within an organization.