PERFORMANCE ANAL ANALYSIS OF YSIS A CONFLICT PROBEUTILIZING ONL ONLY ST STATE VECT TE VECTOR INFORMA OR INFORMATION TION

摘要

The performance of a state vector conflict probern(utilizing only position and velocity vectorrninformation) is analyzed. A methodology isrnpresented for determining missed and false alertrnrates as functions of look-ahead time. A simplerndeterministic conflict probe, similar to that usedrnfor short term conflict alert in current air trafficrnoperations, is implemented – it simply projectsrnthe velocity vector forward from the currentrnposition. This probe was exercised using fieldrndata recorded from the Indianapolis Air RouternTraffic Control Center, with the track data timernshifted to create conflicts similar to those thatrnwould occur in the absence of controller actionsrnto separate traffic. The missed and false alertrnrates were substantial, even at low (less thanrn5 min) look-ahead times. It was found that thernabsence of flight plan information wasrnresponsible for a substantial portion of thesernmissed/false alerts, highlighting the challengesrnof designing state vector conflict probes.