Risk assessment for poorly formalized technological process

摘要

Management of technological process in real time is associated with the emergence of risks related not only with the technical component work of a hazardous production facility, but also inaccurate or untimely assessments pre-emergency or emergency situations on the part of staff. In this article, the proposed methodology is focused on the process of obtaining elemental sulfur by Claus method used at Astrakhan gas condensate complex. We substantiate the expediency of fuzzy logic application for risk assessment of technological processes and control these risks. Application of fuzzy models allows taking into account co-quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the managed objects and represent fuzzy description using fuzzy sets and linguistic variables. We selected risk factors for poorly formalized process, and determined the generalized indicator of quality. The model includes assessment of the operator's actions accuracy and the level value of the process damage. The article shows a calculated example of the model functioning for some dangerous production object condition. It justifies the use of the proposed method as a tool to predict the risks and means of the emergencies prevention in the sulfur production.