A techno economic renewable hybrid technology mini-grid simulation and costing model for off-grid rural electrification planning in Sub-Saharan Africa

摘要

Access to clean, modern energy services is an essential requirement for sustainable development. The UN Sustainable Development Goals and SE4ALL program call for universal access to modern energy services by 2030. However, the latest available figures estimate that 1.1 billion people are living without access to electricity with over 55% living in Sub-Saharan Africa. Furthermore, 90% live in rural areas, often with challenging terrain, low income and population density, or in countries with severe underinvestment in electricity infrastructure making grid extension impractical. Recently, technological and cost improvements with new business models have made mini-grids combining multiple energy technologies one of the most promising alternatives for off-grid electrification. The International Energy Agency has estimated that between 100,000 to 350,000 new mini-grids will be required to reach universal access goals. Given the intermittent and location dependent nature of renewable energy sources and the various cost dynamics of included technologies, detailed system operations and demand modelling are required to determine the cost optimal combinations of technologies for each particular local context. The model presented in this paper simulates hourly mini-grid operation using meteorological data, demand profiles, technology capabilities, and costing data to determine the optimal component sizing of a hybrid mini-grid appropriate for rural electrification. The model is designed to be fully transparent, reproducible, scalable, customizable and uses freely available software and data.