Amplifying prediction accuracy using Swarm A.I.

摘要

In the natural world, many species amplify the accuracy of their decision-making abilities by working together real-time closed-loop systems that converge on optimal solutions in synchrony. Known as Swarm Intelligence (SI), the process has been deeply studied in schools of fish, flocks of birds, and swarms of bees. The present study looks at the ability of human groups to make decisions as an Artificial Swarm Intelligence (ASI) by forming similar real-time closed-loop systems online. More specifically, the present study tasked groups of typical sports fans with predicting English Premier League matches over a period of five consecutive weeks by working together in real-time as swarm-based systems. Results showed that individuals, who averaged 55% accuracy when predicting games alone, were able to amplify their accuracy to 72% when predicting together as real-time swarms. This corresponds to 131% amplification in predictive accuracy across five consecutive weeks (50 games).