A refugee crisis system based on entropy AHP and dynamic programming

摘要

Recent years, refugee crisis becomes an enormous issue due to the increasing tension between countries and a series of terrorist actions. In this paper, we use entropy AHP and dynamic programming model to set up a complete system for the refugee crisis, and make a comprehensive prediction and decision. First, we apply Analytic Hierarchy Process and dissect main influencing factors subjectively in order to select main influencing factors. Next, we make use of Entropy weight objectively. In the end, we establish Entropy AHP Math Model as an evaluation factor of evaluating refugee crisis. According to composite scores for samples, reach the leading factor for samples. When it comes to dynamics of the crisis, we first use Principal Component Analysis Method to analyze environmental factors that change over time. Next, we use Logistic Model to make predictions for the number of refugees. Last we program refugee conditions in dynamic environment with the result of principal component analysis as variable functions and the quantity obtained through Logistic Models as cornerstones. We also discuss the exogenous events and the expansible ability of our conclusion.