THE EFFECT OF POSTPONING THE DELIVERY OF COMMODITY PRODUCT BASED ON REAL OPTION METHOD

摘要

Real option value (ROV) method is considered to be more practical and advanced compared to net present value (NPV) method in evaluating a mining project, in particularly when there is substantial uncertainty in the commodity market as well as possible operational flexibility embedded in the project. Usually, it may take months or even years for the commodity product to be available in the market after the mining activation decision is made. The impacts of postponing the delivery of commodity product on the mine's ROV and NPV are assessed based on the proposed real option method. Postponing the delivery of the products leads to declined NPV and ROV compared to the non-postponing scenario and extended postpone results in higher lost values in NPV and ROV. For a mine with lower mining cost, by postponing the delivery, the exercising threshold of commodity price is lower because the mine owner anticipates that commodity price may rise during the time of postponing. A mine with higher mining cost requires a higher exercising price threshold to "lock up" the profit when there is ambiguity of market situation due to the postponing of the delivery.