Probabilistic safety assessment for power transmission and transformation maintenance project based on fault tree analysis and Bayesian network

摘要

The security of power system maintenance is very important, especially the security of power transmission and transformation maintenance which is directly relevant to the maintainers' safety and the stable operation of power grid. Bayesian Networks (BN) are combined with fault tree analysis (FTA) in this paper, given fault tree to BN transform method when there is a cognitive uncertainty. In addition, the security indexes of power transmission and transformation maintenance are calculated, which could effectively identify its weakness and compute the effect of each event or several events on the integrated safety of maintenance projects, achieving qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the safety in power transmission and transformation maintenance. Therefore, by combining FTA and BN together, the qualitative and quantitative analysis on risks of power transmission and transformation maintenance can be conducted, to provide suggestions for the design and implementation of power transmission and transformation maintenance project to reduce its risk of accidents.