ASSESSING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN AIR FREIGHT AND MERCHANDISE TRADE: A FOCUS ON THE RECENT ECONOMIC CRISIS

摘要

This paper investigates how the air cargo sector was affected by the recent economic crisis.rnFirst, it is examined how the structure of the air cargo industry has changed since 2008. Thisrninvolves the analysis of bankruptcies and capacity reductions by all-cargo carriers, integratorsrnand combination carriers. The results suggest that all-cargo carriers are more heavily impactedrnby the crisis than integrators and combination carriers. To disentangle the relationshiprnbetween air cargo demand and economic activity, an error correction model is used. Based onrnthis model, it is examined whether the recent problems in the air freight business are a purernconsequence of the economic downturn or whether there might be other reasons. From thernresults, it is clear that the sector was not hit significantly harder during the recent crisis thanrnmaybe other sectors but merely followed the trend of the underlying variables. Finally, trafficrnforecasts until 2020 are made.