Research on the Optimal Combination Forecasting Model for Vegetable Price in Hainan

摘要

Hainan is the national people's "Vegetable Basket" in winter.It is of great significance to accurately predict vegetable market price in Hainan for farmers cultivating "vegetable garden" good and government holding "vegetable basket" steady.The theory of combination forecasting is practicable in complex economic system.In view of complexity of vegetable market system, by using the data of vegetable market price in Hainan, three models are set up separately which are Triple exponential smoothing model, simple linear regression model, and grey forecasting model.Then, an optimal combination forecasting model is constructed based on three models above.The prediction results show that the prediction accuracy of the optimal combination forecasting model is superior to the single model, and the model overcomes limitation of the single model and effectively improves the prediction results of vegetable market price.