Hybrid SVM ARMAX based mid-term electricity market clearing price forecasting

摘要

A hybrid mid-term electricity MCP forecasting model combining both support vector machine (SVM) and autoregressive moving average with external input (ARMAX) modules is presented in this paper. Currently, there are many techniques available for short-term electricity market clearing price (MCP) forecasting, but very little has been done in the area of mid-term electricity MCP forecasting. Mid-term electricity MCP forecasting has become essential for resources reallocation, maintenance scheduling, bilateral contracting, budgeting and planning purposes. The proposed hybrid model showed improved forecasting accuracy compared to a forecasting model using a single SVM. PJM interconnection data have been utilized to illustrate the proposed model with numerical examples.