MANFIS-based overtaking maneuver modeling and prediction of a Driver-Vehicle-Unit in real traffic flow

摘要

The purpose of this study is to design multiple-input multiple-output ANFIS (MANFIS) models to simulate and predict the future state of the overtaking maneuver in real traffic flow for four different time steps ahead. These models are designed to predict the behavior for 1, 2, 4 and 6 time steps ahead. Each time step is equal to 0.1 second. In these models, important factors such as distance, velocity, acceleration and the movement angle of the overtaking vehicle are considered. In these models, for all the variables, instantaneous values are used and none of them is considered constant. The presented models predict the future value of the acceleration and the movement angle of the overtaking vehicle. These models are designed based on the real traffic data and validated at the microscopic level. The results show very close agreement between field data and models outputs. The proposed models can be employed ITS applications and the like.