At first, the author builds a regression model holding FER, and gets the main variables of FER growth. Then, she establishes a moderate scale model of FER based on Agarwal model and improved it. At last, she makes an empirical analysis on FER scale since 20c.90s, and draws some conclusions as follows: first, Chinese actual FER is smaller than the low limit of rational scale in 1994 and 1995, that is, the amount of FER is not enough. Second, it is between the low limit and high limit of moderate scale from 1996 to 2001, which means that it is appropriate. Third, it's lager than high limit of the suitable scale from 2002, as time goes on, the excess gets more and more.
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