The Model of Grey-Markov Forecasting Based on Volatility Series and Its Application

摘要

Considering the problem that GM (1, 1) model has notideal predictive results, the Grey-Markov forecasting model is constructed based on the mechanism and characteristic of GM (1, 1) model and Markov forecasting model.GM (1, 1) model is used to describe the long-term developing trends as well as the Markov model ensures the transfer correlations between different statuses.Additionally, the Markov model can be employed to amend the prediction results of GM (1, 1), which can improve the prediction precision.Finally, the validity of this new model is shown with an instance analysis.