LANDSLIDE MOBILITY IN CENTRAL AMERICA: MODELLING VOLCANIC DEBRIS AVALANCHES AND VOLCANIC DEBRIS FLOWS

摘要

The statistical analysis of landslides from comparablerngeological areas can provide information which is usefulrnfor both the prediction of future landslide events and for thernmitigation of hazards related to these future landslidernevents. In Central America, landslides in volcanicrnenvironments appear to be the more hazardous than thosernin non-volcanic environments. In a number of cases,rnvolcanic landslides in Central America have killed upwardsrnof several hundred people in a single event. The purpose ofrnthis paper is to analyze the impacts of major volcanicrnlandslide events in Central America using statisticalrnmodelling. The key empirical relationship modelled is thatrnbetween the volume of the transported material and thernmobility of the landslide, where mobility refers to therntangent of the travel angle of the landslide. There are twornprincipal types of volcanic avalanches, volcanic debrisrnavalanches and volcanic debris flows. Separate statisticalrnmodels are estimated for each of these avalanche types asrnwell as for the total sample which combines both avalancherntypes.