Economic Analysis of Ferro-molybdenum Physical Market on Molybdenum Stock Market in China

摘要

Molybdenum is one of the most important strategy metals. Recent decades saw wild fluctuations of molybdenum products' prices, with the continuous and steady growth of cumulative production as well as equilibrium of supply and demand.This paper measures the closing prices of two stocks, LYMY(3993.HK) and JMGF(601958), as well as the price of ferromolybdenum(FOB, 60%, Chinese main ports), from April 17 to December 31, 2008,based on the modern econometric models and methods, such as ARIMA Model and Impluse Function, shows the impact of Chinese ferro-molybdenum physical market on Chinese molybdenum stock market, which is higher than the impact of Chinese molybdenum stock market on Chinese ferro-molybdenum market, and longer for about 1 month.