RISK ANALYSIS APPLIED TO PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND PROJECT CONTROL

摘要

The deterministic approach for order estimation is based on certain, and eventually precautionary data in terms of operation lead time and material costs. Following the studies about order costs, discussed in [11], the authors decided to extend this kind of analysis to the study of the existing differences between estimated and final times in a stochastic regime. The purpose of this work is to build a modeling tool to deal with the time and the cost estimation problem in a stochastic regime and to offer the Project Manager an online control methodology for balancing stochastic negative effects. This tool could guarantee a precision level that increases while time elapses. For this purpose, the authors developed two different simulators, respectively in Visual Basic 6.0 and in GPSSH XXL, and both validated, with which they carried out an experimental campaign applied to a real company situation to demonstrate the suitability of the proposed order control methodology.