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Improving Energy Use Forecast for Campus Micro-grids Using Indirect Indicators

机译:使用间接指标改进校园微电网的能源使用预测

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The rising global demand for energy is best addressed by adopting and promoting sustainable methods of power consumption. We employ an informatics approach towards forecasting the energy consumption patterns in a university campus micro-grid which can be used for energy use planning and conservation. We use novel indirect indicators of energy that are commonly available to train regression tree models that can predict campus and building energy use for coarse (daily) and fine (15-min) time intervals, utilizing 3 years of sensor data collected at 15min intervals from 170 smart power meters. We analyze the impact of individual features used in the models to identify the ones best suited for the application. Our models show a high degree of accuracy with CV-RMSE errors ranging from 7.45% to 19.32%, and a reduction in error from baseline models by up to 53%.
机译:通过采用和促进可持续的电力消耗方法,可以最好地解决全球不断增长的能源需求。我们采用信息学方法来预测大学校园微电网中的能耗模式,该模式可用于能源使用计划和节约。我们使用新颖的间接能源指标来训练回归树模型,该模型可以预测从粗(每天)到精(15分钟)时间间隔的校园和建筑物能源使用,利用从15分钟间隔内收集的3年传感器数据170个智能功率计。我们分析了模型中使用的各个功能的影响,以确定最适合应用程序的功能。我们的模型显示出很高的准确性,CV-RMSE误差在7.45%至19.32%的范围内,并且与基准模型相比,误差降低了53%。

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